In 2000, I covered the tragic sinking of the Kursk submarine in the frigid Barents Sea, where 118 submariners lost their lives.

Vladimir Putin had been president for less than half a year. I can still remember Russian TV channels slamming him over his handling of the disaster.

This week marked 24 years since K-141 Kursk sank. And, once again, the word Kursk is filling my despatches from Russia. This time Kursk Region, where Ukrainian troops launched their surprise incursion and where they have been seizing territory for nine days now.

Russian television currently shows no criticism of President Putin. There are no doubts cast on his decision-making or suggestions that his invasion of Ukraine has led to the current crisis. The Kremlin has spent 25 years meticulously controlling the media and shaping public messaging.

Yet, the question remains: Will these events impact Vladimir Putin?

This is a question I’ve been asked repeatedly over the past two and a half years. In 2022, when Ukraine sank the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, there was no significant dent in Putin’s standing. The same was true when Russian troops made a rapid retreat from northeastern Ukraine a few months later. Even during the Wagner mutiny in 2023, when armed mercenaries marched on Moscow, Putin emerged seemingly unaffected.

Despite these previous challenges, Putin remains confident in his ability to navigate this latest situation. However, there is a critical difference: the Wagner mutiny lasted just one day, while Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia has been ongoing for over a week. The prolonged nature of this conflict could increase pressure on the Russian leadership and potentially inflict greater damage on Putin’s authority.

Through his two and a half decades in power, Mr Putin has cultivated the image of “Mr Security“, the only man in this vast country capable of keeping Russians safe and secure.

His so-called “special military operation” (the full-scale invasion of Ukraine) was presented to the Russian people as a way of boosting Russia’s national security.

Two and a half years into this war there isn’t much sign here of “safe and secure”.

There is more Nato on Russia’s borders, with Sweden and Finland having joined the Nato Alliance; Russian towns are coming under regular Ukrainian drone attack; now Ukrainian soldiers are seizing Russian territory.

Through his choice of language, Vladimir Putin is trying to show the Russian public that there is no need to panic.

When referring to the Ukrainian incursion he has avoided using the word “invasion”. Instead, he has spoken of “the situation in the border area” or “the events that are taking place”. The Kremlin leader has also called the Ukrainian offensive “a provocation”.