UK Prepares for a Potential Trump or Harris Presidency.

The UK’s government and political establishment are bracing for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, where a victory by either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could significantly impact the transatlantic relationship.

British officials, with recent memories of the Trump administration, are aware that each candidate could bring vastly different dynamics to the “special relationship.”

In his 2016 diaries, Sir Alan Duncan, a former British foreign minister, recalled the shock and disbelief that accompanied Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton. “To everyone’s astonishment, the vulgar insurgent has won!” he wrote, reflecting the surprise felt by much of the British establishment. That shock turned into uncertainty during Trump’s presidency, as evidenced by Theresa May’s memoirs, where she described the challenges of navigating the unpredictable policies coming from Washington.

May, now Lady May, writes, “Dealing with Donald Trump and his administration was like dealing with no other world leader.” The former prime minister vividly recalls her reaction when Trump, without consulting allies, announced a U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq and Syria, where British forces were operating alongside American soldiers. In her words, “This looked remarkably like an abuse of power.” May’s reflections serve as a cautionary reminder for the current prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, who could face similarly volatile circumstances if Trump wins.

Kamala Harris as a Contender

If Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president, wins the presidency, her approach is expected to be more conventional, though she has limited engagement with Europe and has yet to establish a strong rapport with Starmer. While she may be a more predictable leader, Harris could still present challenges for UK relations, particularly as she brings a focus on domestic issues and may deprioritize European alliances.

Trump’s Continued Influence and the UK’s Preparation

For Sir Keir, who has been working to maintain positive relations with the U.S., recent tensions highlight the challenges a second Trump presidency could pose. A recent spat erupted over a LinkedIn post, which Team Trump accused of signaling election interference. Starmer dismissed the accusation, saying, “This needs to be seen for what it is. It’s happened every election; every political party does it.” However, Trump’s team, known for their unpredictable responses, have continued to push the issue, underscoring the long memory the former president’s allies have for perceived slights.

The Potential Impact on the “Special Relationship”

Underneath the diplomatic tensions, British leaders are questioning what a Trump or Harris presidency might mean for the UK’s “most cherished overseas partnership.” Despite Starmer’s attempts to foster goodwill, his experience over the past week shows that U.S.-UK relations can change overnight, depending on who is in the White House. The stakes are high as the UK anticipates a new U.S. president and the complexities that will likely follow.

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