Aliko Dangote Takes on Nigeria’s ‘Oil Mafia’ in Industry Shake-Up.

Aliko Dangote made his money through sugar and cement. Courtesy image.

In a move that could transform Nigeria’s oil sector, Aliko Dangote, the country’s richest businessman, is set to challenge the entrenched interests of the “oil mafia” with his $20 billion, state-of-the-art oil refinery.

However, despite the excitement surrounding this major development, many Nigerians are asking two key questions: Will petrol prices drop? and Will fuel queues become a thing of the past?

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Dangote’s refinery, one of the largest of its kind in the world, is touted as a potential game-changer for Nigeria’s struggling oil industry. As one of the leading producers of crude oil globally, Nigeria has long been dependent on imported refined petroleum products, causing a strain on its foreign reserves and fueling persistent fuel shortages.

The new refinery promises to meet much of the country’s demand for refined products, reducing reliance on imports and potentially lowering fuel costs. But despite the high expectations, many Nigerians are skeptical about the immediate impact on petrol prices. While the refinery could ease supply issues in the long term, the global price of crude oil remains a crucial factor that will likely determine the cost of fuel at the pump.

Dangote’s refinery faces an additional challenge: navigating the entrenched network of corrupt interests within Nigeria’s oil sector, often referred to as the “oil mafia.” For decades, the country’s downstream oil sector has been rife with inefficiency, mismanagement, and corruption, with billions of dollars unaccounted for in dealings involving the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

This network of powerful individuals and groups has often controlled the flow of oil revenues, while the public has borne the brunt of fuel shortages and high prices. The issue of the “oil mafia” has been a thorn in the side of successive Nigerian governments, with instances of state-run oil firms failing to pay billions of dollars in oil revenues, as was the case in 2016 when it was revealed that NNPC owed $16 billion.

For many Nigerians, the most immediate concern is whether Dangote’s refinery will finally end the exhausting and often dangerous fuel queues that have plagued the country for decades. Long lines at petrol stations, particularly during periods of fuel scarcity, have become a hallmark of life in Nigeria, leading to frustration and even violence.

Dangote has expressed confidence that his refinery, once fully operational, will address these issues by ensuring a steady, domestic supply of refined petrol and other products. However, the impact on fuel queues will also depend on how well the distribution network is managed and whether the “oil mafia” will allow Dangote’s operation to flourish without interference.

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