Updated by Anastasios Gordon Sekandi – at 23:06 EAT Thursday 06 March 2025

KYIV | HICGI | — With billions of dollars in U.S. military aid and critical intelligence sharing paused, fears are growing in Ukraine that Elon Musk’s Starlink internet service — a backbone of military and civilian communications — could be the next casualty.

Thousands of Starlink terminals power Ukraine’s front lines, serving as a lifeline for commanders. They enable real-time drone surveillance, sustain battlefield communications, and help coordinate forces across sprawling, contested terrain.

But as the White House pressures Kyiv to enter peace talks with Russia and sign a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s minerals, military leaders fear Starlink could become another bargaining chip.

“We’ve become very dependent on Starlink, and losing it would be a serious blow,” said Taras Chmut, head of the Come Back Alive Foundation, which has supplied thousands of terminals to Ukrainian forces. “Without it, large-scale live streaming of drone footage would be nearly impossible.”

The Musk Factor

Musk’s relationship with Ukraine has been volatile. SpaceX rushed Starlink to Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, initially providing the service for free. But by October of that year, Musk threatened to cut access, citing unsustainable costs — though he ultimately passed the bill to the Pentagon.

Despite the rocky history, Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink deepened. In late 2024, SpaceX expanded its involvement, signing a new Pentagon contract to upgrade 2,500 terminals to Starshield, a more secure and encrypted version of the service designed to resist hacking and jamming. An additional 500 terminals had already been connected to Starshield under a 2023 deal.

According to the Space Systems Command’s Commercial Satellite Communications Office, these contracts secure coverage through 2025. Yet, the agreements predate Trump’s election victory — raising questions about whether they might be revisited as part of broader U.S. policy shifts. Neither SpaceX nor the White House National Security Council responded to requests for comment.

Musk has denied claims that U.S. officials suggested Starlink access could be cut if Ukraine refused to sign the minerals deal. Still, Ukrainian forces are exploring contingencies.

Civilian Lifeline

Starlink’s importance extends far beyond the battlefield. In a country where power outages and damaged infrastructure are routine, the service keeps hospitals, schools, and entire communities connected.

Speaking at a forum on Feb. 23, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Starlink supports “thousands of hospitals, kindergartens, schools, and universities,” adding there was “no hint” that the service would be shut off.

But trust is fragile, especially after the Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelensky that triggered new restrictions on U.S. support.

“Russians fight without Starlink — it is possible to fight without it,” said Serhii Beskrestnov, head of Ukraine’s Center for Radio Technologies. “But it would be a significant loss for us. It would slow us down.”

International Stakes

Most Starlink terminals in Ukraine weren’t provided by the U.S. Official estimates show Ukraine has secured 47,000 terminals since 2022, with 24,500 coming from Poland, 10,000 from Germany, and 5,000 via USAID and other donors, including SpaceX.

Poland alone spent $30 million last year on Starlink for Ukraine, with costs expected to rise to $47 million in 2025. Polish Digital Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski warned that a sudden service cutoff would trigger a diplomatic crisis.

“I cannot imagine a situation where a U.S. company would abruptly sever a business relationship with an EU member state,” Gawkowski said during a European Council meeting.

Searching for Alternatives

Despite the heavy reliance on Starlink, Ukrainian officials insist they aren’t without options.

“In 2022 and 2023, our dependence on Starlink was huge,” said Andrii Kovalenko, a member of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council. “But we’ve since saturated the front lines with fiber-optic cables, high-speed modems, and satellite options from Swedish and German providers.”

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov recently confirmed that Ukraine is actively working on alternative systems but declined to share specifics. European officials have floated granting Kyiv access to Govsatcom, an EU satellite network, or expanding partnerships with companies like Eutelsat OneWeb.

Still, experts warn that no single provider can fully match Starlink’s speed, coverage, and affordability.

“You can’t just flip the switch to a new service,” said Clayton Swope, an aerospace expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Ukraine could piece together a patchwork system, but it would be a dim reflection of Starlink.”

A New Threat?

For some Ukrainians, the greater fear isn’t losing Starlink — it’s Russia gaining access to it.

Though SpaceX is barred from selling to Russia, Ukrainian soldiers claim some Russian units have already acquired Starlink kits through black-market channels, improving their surveillance and coordination.

“If Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, SpaceX might follow,” Beskrestnov warned. “This would open a huge market for them — one far more lucrative than Ukraine.”

“And that,” he added, “would be as damaging as losing Starlink itself.”

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