Trump Threatens Strike on Country With Significant Oil Reserves

Updated by Eric Kikomeko at 1359 EAT on Tuesday 2 December 2025

The United States appears to be on the brink of confrontation with Venezuela, a move President Nicolás Maduro this weekend blamed on America’s interest in the country’s enormous oil reserves.

Washington has rejected that claim. The US State Department said oil is not driving the deployment of more than a dozen warships and 15,000 troops to the region, nor is it behind President Donald Trump’s warnings of potential strikes and advisories for planes to avoid Venezuelan airspace. The administration insists its military actions are intended to curb the flow of undocumented migrants and illegal drugs from Venezuela.

Still, with tensions rising rapidly in the Caribbean, Venezuela’s status as the holder of the world’s largest proven oil reserves ensures that any shift in its political landscape will have global economic and strategic consequences.

While large oil reserves are often associated with the Middle East or Texas, Venezuela holds an enormous 303 billion barrels of crude — roughly a fifth of the world’s total, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It is the largest known single deposit of crude oil on the planet.

Venezuela produces roughly 1 million barrels of oil per day — a significant amount, but only about 0.8% of global crude production. This is less than half of the output recorded before President Nicolás Maduro assumed power in 2013, and a third of the 3.5 million barrels per day the country produced prior to the Socialist government’s rise in 1999.

The decline of Venezuela’s oil industry has been driven by a combination of international sanctions, a deep economic crisis, and, according to the US Energy Information Administration, chronic underinvestment and poor maintenance. The country’s energy infrastructure has deteriorated over the years, severely limiting its capacity to produce oil.

The situation is especially challenging because Venezuela’s oil — heavy, sour crude — requires specialized equipment and advanced technical expertise to extract and refine. While international oil companies possess the necessary capabilities, sanctions and restrictions have largely barred them from operating in the country.

The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela since 2005. In 2019, the Trump administration effectively blocked all crude exports from state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela to the US. In 2022, President Joe Biden granted Chevron a license to operate in the country as part of efforts to ease domestic gas prices. The permit was briefly revoked by Trump in March but later reinstated, with the condition that no revenue goes to the Maduro government.

The United States produces more oil than any country in history, yet it still imports certain types of crude — particularly the heavy, sour crude that Venezuela produces.

US oil output is predominantly light, sweet crude, ideal for gasoline but less suitable for other products. Heavy, sour crude from Venezuela is essential for refining diesel, asphalt, and fuels for industrial machinery and heavy equipment. Global diesel supplies are tight, in large part due to sanctions restricting Venezuelan oil exports.

As of September, the United States imported 102,000 barrels of oil per day from Venezuela, according to the EIA. That makes Venezuela the 10th-largest source of US oil imports, far behind Saudi Arabia, which supplied 254,000 barrels per day, and Canada, the top supplier, with 4.1 million barrels per day.

For decades, the United States relied far more heavily on Venezuelan oil than it does today.

Venezuela’s proximity and relatively low-cost crude — a result of its heavy, viscous texture requiring extensive refining — made it an attractive source. Most US refineries were built to process this type of heavy oil and operate far more efficiently using Venezuelan crude than lighter American varieties, according to Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group.

The collapse of Venezuela’s energy industry and longstanding restrictions suggest the country could become a far larger oil supplier. That would create opportunities for Western oil companies and add a new source of global production. Increased supply could help stabilize prices, though lower prices might reduce incentives for US producers.

“If we had a legitimate government in Venezuela to run things, that would open up the world to more supply, reducing the risk of price spikes and shortages,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group. “It would be a huge thing if we could reinvigorate the Venezuelan oil market.”

Even with full international access, restoring Venezuela’s oil production would take years and massive investment. PDVSA reports that pipelines have gone largely unmaintained for 50 years, and modernizing infrastructure to return to peak output could cost $58 billion.

For a government more aligned with the West, that expense could be worth it — not only for profits in oil and refining but for broader geopolitical influence.

For example, Russian oil is similar to Venezuela’s, which helps explain why India and China remain heavily dependent on it despite international sanctions aimed at limiting Moscow’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine, according to CNN. Expanding Venezuela’s production capacity could provide an alternative to Russian oil, potentially weakening Russia’s economy — and its ability to sustain military operations in Ukraine.

Sanctions have also hit Venezuela hard: PDVSA remains the largest source of revenue for President Nicolás Maduro’s government. Restoring the company to its former capacity could deliver significant economic benefits to the country.

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