Updated by Faith Barbara N Ruhinda at 1323 EAT on Monday 13 April 2026

US Naval Blockade of Iran Risks Deepening Global Energy Crisis, Analysts Warn
The planned naval blockade of Iran by Donald Trump could further disrupt international shipping and intensify the global energy crisis, analysts have warned.

Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel on Monday after Trump announced that the United States Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route.

He said US forces would “interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran,” raising fears of significant disruptions to oil supplies and global trade.

Analysts say any restriction of movement through the Strait of Hormuz — a key corridor for a large share of the world’s oil shipments — could have far-reaching consequences for energy markets and the wider global economy.

“Iran will not be allowed to profit from this illegal act of extortion,” Donald Trump said on Truth Social.

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) later clarified in a statement that the proposed blockade would target only vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports, signalling an apparent scaling back of Trump’s earlier threat to fully shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

Trita Parsi, co-founder of the US-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned that a US blockade could trigger widespread economic consequences.
“Anything that currently takes more oil off the market will push prices up, which in turn will push gas prices further,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

He added that oil prices could surge beyond $150 per barrel if the blockade provokes retaliation from the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen, potentially disrupting traffic through the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait — a key route linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

The strait serves as a critical alternative export corridor for Gulf oil and gas.
Analysts say a blockade aimed at cutting off Iran’s revenues would represent a sharp reversal in Washington’s recent policy stance. Just last month, the Trump administration announced limited sanctions waivers on Iranian oil exports in a bid to ease pressure on global energy markets.

Iran has effectively restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the US-Israeli conflict on February 28, allowing only a limited number of vessels to pass after undergoing strict vetting and authorisation.

The disruption has left thousands of ships stranded in surrounding waters. As of Saturday, about 3,200 vessels were backed up west of the strait, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward, underscoring the scale of the crisis facing global shipping.

Anas Alhajji, former chief economist at NGP Energy Capital Management, said non-Iranian vessels are likely to continue avoiding the Strait of Hormuz despite assurances from the US military that they would not be targeted, citing soaring insurance premiums.

He added that shipping operators may also fear potential retaliation from Iran.
“Therefore, the Trump blockade of Iranian ports amounts to a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,” Alhajji told Al Jazeera.

Analysts warn that the resulting rise in oil and gas prices could ripple across global markets, driving up the cost of chemicals, fertilisers, and raw materials used in plastics manufacturing.

Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions, said prices for many raw materials could begin rising within weeks if the blockade is enforced.

“The wild card is really the timeframe on this,” Johnson said.

“If this is a negotiating tactic — and we still have eight or nine days left of the ceasefire — it may not have a lasting impact. But if it extends through the end of the month and into early May, you will see raw material prices spike globally.”

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, warned that the situation for global supply chains could deteriorate significantly under a blockade.
“Some of the problems are obvious, but many are not. As an example, fabrics will become more expensive,” Elms told Al Jazeera.

She added that packaging shortages are already affecting manufacturers, with many firms struggling to secure blister packs for pharmaceuticals and lids for consumer goods.

“We can expect consequences for food production later this year and into next year due to fertiliser disruptions and supply shortages,” she said.

Chad Norville, president of the oil and gas news platform Rigzone, said the threat of a blockade further undermines confidence that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will stabilise anytime soon.

He noted that even the prospect of such action is likely to push up insurance premiums for shipping and logistics companies, while reducing the volume of trade passing through the strait.

“Disruptions to shipping and elevated risk in the region were already well established due to the conflict,” Norville told Al Jazeera

-Aljazeera

Invest or Donate towards HICGI New Agency Global Media Establishment – Watch video here

Email: editorial@hicginewsagency.com TalkBusiness@hicginewsagency.com WhatsApp +256713137566

Follow us on all social media, type “HICGI News Agency” .