Sudan Conflict Risks Spilling Over Into Neighbouring Countries

The 2019 Sudan uprisings that ousted long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir and installed a military-civilian transitional government gave hope that the country could finally transition to democratic rule. The country has been ruled by the military for most of its independence since 1956, writes May Darwich for The Conversation Africa.

But Sudan’s bumpy transition to democracy has come to a complete halt as a full-blown civil war – with external entanglements – looms. As of Friday May 5, 2023, a ceasefire that was supposed to come into force on Thursday had already been broken. Deutsche Wellereports that airstrikes and heavy shelling were reported near the presidential palace in the capital Khartoum.

Darwich writes that the Sudanese armed forces and a paramilitary force known as the Rapid Support Forces have declared war against each other, bringing the country to its knees. The main protagonists are two generals: Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the armed forces, and Mohamad Hamdan Daglo (known as Hemedti) of the Rapid Support Forces.

The hostilities have been most intense in Khartoum. But violence has broken out in other provinces and is threatening to revive long-simmering violence in Darfur.

There is also a risk that the conflict could spill over to neighbouring countries and escalate into a regional conflict. Geographically, Sudan borders seven countries: Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Libya. Politically and culturally, it straddles the Middle East, North Africa and the Horn of Africa.

Darwich writes that tegional and international actors are key in enabling – or preventing – the development of the crisis into a protracted civil war with regional dimensions. The best chance of halting Sudan’s slide into civil war lies in a united front of Western and regional powers, with Sudanese civil society groups putting pressure on the warring generals for a permanent ceasefire. And a return to a civilian-led transition.

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